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The latest forecast of the Polish Bank Association (ZBP) assumes reaching the level of 220,000. mortgage loans worth PLN 60bn in 2019. ZBP forecasts that in 2020 the results will be less favorable compared to the record level expected this year.
Key importance of interest rates level
Of course, the most important factor affecting the analyzed statistics is the current level of NBP interest rates. According to Jacek Furga – chairman of the ZBP Housing Financing Committee, without changing the regulations imposing an additional burden on the banking sector, he will not be able to repeat the result of the current year in 2020. The scale of the recovery may be evidenced by the fact that the results of lending in the third quarter of 2019 were the highest in 43 quarters. The first nine months of 2019 generated 87% of the value of housing loans granted throughout 2018.
Rising housing prices affect higher loans
Strong increases in housing prices that we are dealing with in the housing market have a direct impact on the ever higher loan amounts. In 2019 Q3, the average value of a housing loan taken exceeded PLN 282,000 PLN (+ 8.8% y / y). Observing the current situation on the housing market, it can be expected that 2019 Q4 should bring further increases in average amounts of mortgage loans.