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In July this year, on the housing loan market, we recorded high negative dynamics of the value of loans granted (-22.6%), with a high negative dynamics of the number of loans granted (-22.7%) compared to July 2019.
In the Jan-Jul period of 2020, already 41.7% of the value of loans granted related to the amount range above PLN 350,000. While analyzing the situation in individual amount ranges determining the value of a housing loan in the Jan-Jul 2020 period, still as in previous periods, we observe different trends. The positive sales dynamics of housing loans, both in terms of numbers and value, apply only to loans above PLN 350,000, which between January and July 2020, compared to the same period of 2019, (growth by 9.4% in the number and by 9.5% in terms of value.
– The results of the July sales of housing loans fully reflect the end of the lockdown and the beginning of defrosting. Better July than June (+ 8.3% in numbers and 8% in terms of value) signaled a better June reading of the Demand Index for housing loans (-6.7%). However, it should be remembered that the situation on the housing loan market is determined by the behavior of both potential borrowers wishing to purchase real estate on a loan and the behavior of banks granting loans. Banks, still highly uncertain, have a tightened credit policy, resulting in limited loan availability, especially as a result of a reduction in the acceptable level of the LtV ratio. These factors and higher requirements regarding the amount of own contribution may constitute a significant barrier to obtaining a loan, especially in the 22-35 age group. Hence, the large negative dynamics in the loan ranges PLN100,000-150,000 and PLN150,000-200,000 (numerically -24.2% and -20.5%, respectively). It is the supply side, not the demand side (which has practically rebuilt – the July reading of the Demand Index is only -3.5%) that will determine the face of the housing loan market in the following months and the entire second half of 2020. Banks have already indicated in their cycli cal survey loosening of requirements for potential mortgage borrowers for the NBP – forecasts Prof. Rogowski.
The monthly reading of the Quality Index of the housing loan portfolio in July 2020 was 0.84%. In the last 12 months (July 2019 – July 2020), the quality of the portfolio has slightly deteriorated, as evidenced by a slight increase (deterioration) of the Index by (+0.05).
– Despite previous major concerns, we are currently not recording a drop in the quality of the housing loan portfolio. At the same time, it should be remembered that we are talking about 90-day delays, i.e. possible only after a 3-month delay in paying the loan installment. In addition, some borrowers have taken advantage of or are still taking advantage of bank “credit holidays”, and in their case, their possible overdue may occur at the earliest in Q4 2020. As in the case of other types of loans, we must especially observe the “post-vacation” behavior of housing borrowers. After the end of the deferral period, will they regularly pay off the loan installments monthly or not. Intuition and experience suggest that most will return to regular monthly repayments of their housing loan – emphasizes prof. Rogowski.
Source: BIK (Biuro Informacji Kredytowej)