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Changes in global markets and shortages of some raw materials have caused prices of building materials to keep going up. Although according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS) prices in the construction industry increased in July by 3.9% on an annual basis, the sales data of Polskie Składy Budowlane show that the increase was more than twice as fast and reached 8.3% y/y.
Prices of building materials on the Polish market reflect changes on the global market, and the upward trend can be seen, among others, in steel. On the London Metal Exchange, steel rebar prices have jumped from USD 500 to USD 700 per tonne since November last year. Such prices are expected to remain until the end of 2021. According to the Polish Association of Construction Employers, price increases on the market range from 68% – by which the prices of profiles jumped – through 94% – the prices of construction rods – up to 160%, i.e. by which the prices of hot-rolled sheet metal rose. Such significant changes were observed from January to May 2021.
A similar situation exists in the case of wood, the shortage of which appeared in May this year. Although the market is slowly recovering, producers in all EU countries have decided to increase prices, with fluctuations reaching 15-30% in PPI. Prices of wood products will likely continue to rise this year.
According to PSB data, the biggest price fluctuations on the Polish market could be felt in the sector of steel elements and wood. According to the Polish Economic Institute, OSB boards have risen by 40% on an annual basis, tin roofing elements by 12.5%, and installations by 10.9%. In addition, wholesalers are running out of polystyrene, which is the basis for the production of polystyrene foam, and this translates into higher prices of other materials such as thermal elements. Already in July, their prices increased by 25%. According to PIE, the market may not stabilise until the end of 2021, and prices of polystyrene and construction chemicals may increase significantly.
Differences in data presented by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and real sales data of companies make it hard to find a reliable source of information, which definitely hinders housing policy. According to experts, the way surveys are conducted should be changed.
PMR presents an analysis presenting price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2021 for 16 main categories of construction materials. The analysis includes price trends and price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2021 prepared in three forecasting scenarios: “Price forecasts for main construction materials, Q3 – Q4 2021“.