How many flats will developers sell this year?
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What level of flat sales will developers record this year? Do preliminary summaries indicate lower results than last year? How big will the correction be? Is the companies’ offer today smaller than last year? The survey was conducted by dompress.pl real estate service.
Mirosław Kujawski, Member of the Management Board of Develia
Due to the pandemic and high uncertainty in the market, the first half of this year was demanding and sales were weaker compared to the previous year. In Q3, the situation on the real estate market improved significantly. We recorded a 15% increase in sales compared to the same period last year. In the fourth quarter of this year, the pandemic situation deteriorated, and this will have an impact on consumer moods. Nevertheless, we are counting on a good end of the year.
Achieving good sales in the last quarter will be possible thanks to a large number of bookings at the end of the previous quarter and the introduction of new investments, including subsequent stages of the Ceglana Park project in Katowice and the Lighthouse Keeper’s Housing Estate in Gdańsk and the new Prestovia House project in Warsaw. At the end of Q3 2019 Develia had 2136 flats on offer, this year at the end of September we had 1641 units on sale.
Angelika Kliś, Managing Director for Sales and Marketing at Atal
The extraordinary, pandemic situation will translate into a lower level of contracting this year. We assume an adjustment of around 10% against our assumptions at the beginning of the year. Therefore, we expect that in the whole of 2020, the number of signed developer contracts will be around 2.8-3 thousand.
In accordance with the plan adopted for this year, we are implementing and commencing investment projects in all seven agglomerations where we operate. At the same time, we are trying to maintain the level of our offer within the range of 3500-4300 flats and premises. Importantly, the level of the current offer is similar to that of last year. We currently have approximately 3900 flats and commercial premises on sale. For comparison, last year’s offer amounted to 4254 units, but in November it decreased to 3988 units.
Małgorzata Ostrowska, Director of Marketing and Sales Division at J.W. Construction Holding S.A.
This year I expect the sales result to be worse than last year. This is mainly due to the available offer, which is much smaller than last year. Due to numerous barriers resulting from the time of the pandemic, and in particular the extension of the waiting time for the construction permit, we have not managed to launch several new projects. This significantly impoverished the offer. Flats are selling out quickly, especially in investments whose completion is planned for the end of this year. In the New Millennium Estate in Katowice, only 8% of flats remain, and less than 10% in the Hanza Tower, the highest building in Szczecin. Flats in the cosy Villa Vistula in Warsaw’s Tarchomin are sold out, only commercial premises are available for purchase. The offer in the Near Wola Tower building in Warsaw, which is planned to be completed by the end of 2021, has also been sold out in 80 percent.
Sebastian Barandziak, CEO of Dekpol Developer
This year’s flat sales will certainly be lower than last year’s. On the one hand, the growing requirements of banks have limited the credit action. Customers were also more cautious in making purchase decisions. On the other hand, the freezing of the economy, including changes in the work of administrative bodies, has lengthened the process of obtaining necessary administrative decisions, such as building permits or occupancy permits. However, it can be seen that demand is still high and customers are looking for attractive properties. At the end of September this year, we had 194 units on sale, which is slightly less than a year ago.
Zuzanna Należyta, Sales Director at Eco Classic
The first quarter of 2020 was a record one when it comes to the sale of new flats, with the highest number of flats sold in two years. In the second quarter, many customers gave up their purchase plans, fearing a pandemic or their future. As the sales results for the third quarter show, we have already got used to the epidemic. However, the collapse in sales which took place in the second quarter will certainly result in comparable or slightly lower sales results compared to the previous year.
Janusz Miller, Sales and Marketing Director of Home Invest
We estimate that this year’s sales results will be comparable to last year’s. Of course, if it were not for the pandemic, sales would probably be much better. However, we are pleased with the current situation, because it looks very good so far. We have several hundred flats on offer in Warsaw, in investments in Wola, Bielany and Targówek. All the locations are very popular because they are close to underground stations and surrounded by full infrastructure, necessary for everyday life. Flats in our projects are an ideal proposal for investors and people looking for a target place for themselves or their families.
Tomasz Czubak, Director of Development Projects Preparation in Jakon
We estimate that this year’s summary of sales will be 20-25 percent lower than a year ago. The biggest drop in sales was recorded in the second quarter of the year, when contact with the customer was difficult and displacement was practically impossible. However, after this period, sales stabilised. In our investments, which are nearing to obtaining a permit to use, we have sold most of the premises. We are successively introducing new investments to our offer so that customers can have a wide selection of flats and commercial premises.
Monika Perekitko, Board Member of Matexi Polska
Not only do we estimate it, but we already know that it will be a good result. Unlike many developers, we have not stopped launching new projects on the market and are consistently pursuing our strategy of developing a portfolio of new locations. As a result, we have significantly increased our sales results compared to the same period last year. Another important factor influencing the result is the PRS (Private Rented Sector) transaction completed in the second quarter, addressed to an institutional client, concerning the sale of the Puławska 186 building. As a result, we have completed the sale of 200 units under one contract.
Edyta Kołodziej, Sales and Marketing Director at Nickel Development
We are implementing the sales plan as planned and, despite the April-May falls, a good third quarter has allowed us to make up for the slowdown, and the fourth quarter looks equally promising. Everything seems to indicate that, as last year, we will meet our sales targets. As far as the size of the offer is concerned, customers now have more choice than a year ago, as two new development projects have recently entered the market: ST_ART Piątkowo and Zbrojowa.
Joanna Chojecka, Sales and Marketing Director for Warsaw and Wrocław in Robyg SA.
Our offer of flats is stable, currently we offer our clients a choice of over 1700 flats, and the whole land bank in our possession exceeds 17000 units. We hope that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, recorded in the second quarter of this year, will not be significant in the whole year. However, it is currently difficult to estimate the year-round sales. We have adjusted our projects to the expectations of our customers and we are constantly introducing new stages of the investment, both in Warsaw, Gdańsk and Wrocław. We have over 6500 flats under construction, and all the work is proceeding according to schedule.
Our clients are not giving up their housing plans, and the investment demand is growing. Besides, clients are looking for better and better projects with balconies and terraces in good locations. They expect well-designed flats and, if necessary, also use them for remote working.
Sylwester Śniadecki, President of Śniadecki Development and Śniadecki Investment Group
2020 is already over, so we have data to compare this year’s sales with last year’s. Contrary to the initial concerns that accompanied the beginning of the pandemic, 2020 is ending extremely well for both entrepreneurs and experts. We have seen an almost 40% increase in sales. Such a significant progress is certainly the result of a change in the preferences of buyers, and our offer of houses with gardens meets the current market demand. We are currently conducting three investments, and five more are at an advanced design stage. Our offer is therefore larger than in 2019.
Małgorzata Nowodworska, Sales and Marketing Director Angel Poland Group in Kraków
The level of sales in 2020 will certainly be higher than in the previous year due to the popularity of the premium segment in the face of the crisis, but mainly because our residential offer was wider than last year. This year, we are selling three investments: Angel Stradom, Angel Green in Kraków and Angel City in Wrocław.
Robert Stachowiak, President of the Management Board of SGI
In 2019 we successfully completed the sale of flats in projects outside Warsaw. In 2020 and 2021 we focus on the most liquid market – the capital city. Currently we have two projects on sale in Warsaw’s Siekierki – Nova Bluszczańska and Ustron Mokotów. We estimate that in both cases sales in 2020 will be similar to last year’s sales. We also see great interest in further projects. Customers who have not managed to find the right size for themselves ask about the company’s future investments.
Jarosław Kozak, Vice-President of the Management Board of Waryński S.A. Holding Group
Regardless of the pandemic situation that has been going on for the past months, we are still aiming to reduce the volume of housing available on the market by continuing to sell. None of the developers have noticed a complete stopping of sales, even during the crisis in 2008. However, we can speak of a slowdown in sales, which is primarily related to the caution of buyers in their purchasing decisions.
Agata Zambrzycka, Sales and Marketing Director at Aria Development
This year at the Łomianki Estate we doubled the sale of flats. We estimate that by the end of December this year we will increase sales by 140% compared to the previous year. We have completed sales at the Natura 1 Estate. All flats have been sold out before obtaining the occupancy permit. We have also started the sale of Nowe Osiedle Natura 2, where only in the first two weeks of the sale we signed reservation agreements for over 15% of the flats.
Mariola Żak, Sales and Marketing Director of Aurec Home
The town of Jutrzenko has been recognised as one of the best residential debuts in Warsaw and one of the best-selling investments by residential real estate experts. We do not expect a sudden slowdown in sales.
Wojciech Dzioba, CEO of TBV Investment
We expect to maintain a comparable level of sales this year to last year. It is worth noting, however, that our offer this year includes about 40% more flats than last year. New investments are being built in several different locations in Lublin.