Summary of 2019 and forecast for 2020 according to PSB Group
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The PSB Group summarised the past year and published its forecasts for 2020. In its opinion, prices of building materials will continue to rise, and demand for materials in residential construction will be comparable to the previous year or even slightly higher.
PSB Group’s results on sales of building materials in 2019
At the end of 2019 PSB Group consisted of 395 trading companies, with a total of 296 stores of construction materials, 307 PSB Mrówka stores and 64 PSB Profi outlets. In the discussed period, the retail network grew by 22 stores, and 3 wholesalers were transformed into modern construction centers PSB Profi.
Accumulated revenues from the sale of construction materials of the entire PSB Group reached in 2019 the ceiling of about 7.2 billion PLN and were by 8% higher than in the previous year. However, it should be emphasized that the total revenues of the entities forming the PSB are higher by more than 1 billion, coming from other activities, which are carried out by a large percentage of our partners – sale of fuels, fertilizers, developer, contractor, production, transport, hotel industry.
An average partner of the PSB Group (wholesaler, Mrowka, Profi) increased its revenues by 6.2% in 2019 compared to 2018.
In turn, total revenues of PSB Handel S.A. Group. (head office) reached the level of almost PLN 2.97 billion and were 10% higher than a year ago.
Summary of 2019
- In the past season, the average PSB Group partner company increased its sales revenues for the construction industry by just over 6% and this growth rate was significantly lower than in 2018.
- In 2019, there was a further increase in demand for the long-established residential market.
- The main barriers to the development of the construction industry were rising employment costs, shortages of qualified employees and increased burden to the budget.
- The dynamics of growth in the prices of heavy construction products was – on average – 4.7% (the year before these prices increased by over 7%). In turn, products used to maintain houses and gardens became more expensive by about 2.3%.
- The prices of construction and assembly services did not grow as much as in 2018.
What will the 2020 season be like for the building materials trade?
- The total number of flats, the construction of which began in 2019, has reached a long-term record of at least twenty years. It exceeded the ceiling of 237 thousand, i.e. by 6.9% more than in the record year 2018, when the growth rate reached 7.7%. The permits issued have also reached their maximum since the beginning of the current century – 268.5 thousand positive administrative decisions meant an increase of 4.4% compared to the previous year.
- In 2019, the value of housing loans was several percent higher than in 2018.
- However, macroeconomic forecasts for Poland are worse than a year ago – experts estimate GDP growth at 2.8 – 3.5%, inflation will rise significantly – today it is difficult to assess how far it will exceed 3%, investments will fall significantly – even to 0.2%. The country has clearly entered a period of economic slowdown.
- On the other hand, low unemployment, a significant increase in the minimum wage and an increase in real wages will undoubtedly stimulate consumer spending on the current maintenance of their property.
- The housing needs of Poles are still unsatisfied – however, the implementation of government assistance programmes in this respect, in the past years, has not brought the announced effects and there is no real chance for a clear improvement in 2020.
- The prices of building materials will continue to rise, especially those whose production is energy-intensive.
- The economic forecasts formulated by contractors are no longer as optimistic as last year.
- Against this background, it can be estimated that this year’s demand for materials in residential construction will be comparable to the previous year or slightly higher. It should be noted that the residential construction industry is at the peak of the economic situation which has not been recorded for years.
- The PSB Group will dynamically develop its commercial network – this year we plan to open about 30 Mrowka and transform a few existing warehouses into modern construction centres under the name PSB Profi.